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Pictured: Aaron Gordon #50 of the Denver Nuggets looks on during the game against the Memphis Grizzlies on April 14, 2024 at FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee. Via Grant Burke/Getty Images.

NBA player props: Expert picks for Aaron Gordon and T.J. McConnell for Sun. 5/12

Originally posted on Action Network | By Tyler Schmidt | Last updated 5/12/24

Sunday features two important Game 4s as the Pacers host the Knicks before the Nuggets visit the Timberwolves. These series could be tied up at two games after today, or the Knicks and Timberwolves could take commanding 3-1 leads.

The Knicks and Pacers will lead us off at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC followed by the Nuggets and Timberwolves at 8 p.m. ET on TNT.

In the table below, you can find my top two NBA player prop picks for today, Sunday, May 12, featuring bets for T.J. McConnell and Aaron Gordon. Let's break down how I'm targeting these two players.

Knicks vs. Pacers Player Props

Sunday, May 12, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
T.J. McConnell Over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105, DraftKings)

Despite a relatively poor Game 3, we're going back to the well with Pacers backup point guard T.J. McConnell. Even though the Pacers finally won a game in this series, McConnell only scored six points while shooting 3-for-10 from the field. He added three rebounds and one assist, but that was nowhere near what he needed to exceed his PRA line.

Nonetheless, tonight's matchup with the Knicks is another great spot for McConnell.

The Pacers have a slate-high 112-point team total and are 5.5-point home favorites as the Knicks will continue to be shorthanded without Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson and OG Anunoby. Their defense has suffered, and that is not a great sign against the league's highest scoring offense this season. Through the first three games of this series, the average point total was over 235 points per game.

McConnell had the best season in his nine-year career this year as he posted a career-high 10.2 points, 5.5 assists and 2.7 rebounds per game. He did this efficiently by shooting 55.6% from the field and 40.9% from behind the arc.

Our prop model loves all of McConnell's props tonight. However, getting exposure to his total points, rebounds and assists feels like the best route. He is projected to capture 21.3 total points, rebounds and assists in Game 4 and has easily gone over this prop line in three of his last four games, so getting this at -105 on the DraftKings is great value. I would consider this prop at plus-money even if it was closer to 20.5 points, rebounds and assists.

Pick: T.J. McConnell Over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105 | DraftKings)

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Player Props

Sunday, May 12, 8 p.m. ET, TNT
Aaron Gordon Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds (-112, DraftKings)

For a player who made one 3-pointer in the entire series against the Lakers, Aaron Gordon has found his shooting touch from the perimeter against the Timberwolves. He has made three 3-pointers in back-to-back games and is shooting 63% from the field and 60% from downtown in his last three games. Uncharacteristically, his rebounding numbers have been down as the Nuggets' power forward is only averaging three boards per game in this series.

Our prop model loved Gordon's rebounding prop at 5.5 rebounds, but grabbing his points plus rebounds is the way to play this prop given how well Gordon has scored the ball in this series.

His prop line is set at 16.5 total points and rebounds, but he is projected to record 19.3, which is nearly three points and rebounds higher than his line. Playing alongside Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray creates so many open shots for Nuggets role players like Gordon, especially with Gordon often lurking in the dunker spot near the rim or in the short corner.

Since joining the Nuggets during the 2020-2021 season, Gordon's efficiency has skyrocketed. It helps that he gets so many great looks, but Gordon has shot north of 50% in each season with the Nuggets and shot 55.6% this season. He has also averaged at least 6.5 rebounds per game in his last two seasons.

The Timberwolves got Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert back last game after missing Game 2, but Gordon still separated in the paint. He is always in the right spot at the right time for a pocket pass and easy deuce. Whether it is scoring or rebounding, Gordon will find a way to be involved. He is projected to play heavy minutes again tonight, which is another reason why his over for points and rebounds looks so great.